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Heavy Precipitation Impacts on Nitrogen Loading to the Gulf of Mexico in the 21st Century: Model Projections Under Future Climate Scenarios


Metadata FieldValueLanguage
dc.creatorZhang, Jien
dc.creatorLu, Chaoqun
dc.creatorCrumpton, William
dc.creatorJones, Christopher
dc.creatorTian, Hanqin
dc.creatorVillarini, Gabriele
dc.creatorSchilling, Keith
dc.creatorGreen, David
dc.date.accessioned2022-12-02T14:46:38Z
dc.date.available2022-12-02T14:46:38Z
dc.date.created2022
dc.identifier10.1029/2021EF002141en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021EF002141en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://aurora.auburn.edu/handle/11200/50468
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.35099/aurora-536
dc.description.abstractWhile spatial heterogeneity of riverine nitrogen (N) loading is predominantly driven by the magnitude of basin-wide anthropogenic N input, the temporal dynamics of N loading are closely related to the amount and timing of precipitation. However, existing studies do not disentangle the contributions of heavy precipitation versus non-heavy precipitation predicted by future climate scenarios. Here, we explore the potential responses of N loading from the Mississippi Atchafalaya River Basin to precipitation changes using a well-calibrated hydro-ecological model and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. With present agricultural production and management practices, N loading could increase up to 30% by the end of the 21st century under future climate scenarios, half of which would be driven by heavy precipitation. Particularly, the RCP8.5 scenario, in which heavy precipitation and drought events become more frequent, would increase N loading disproportionately to projected increases in river discharge. N loading in spring would contribute 41% and 51% of annual N loading increase under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, most of which is related to higher N yield due to increases in heavy precipitation. Anthropogenic N inputs would be increasingly susceptible to leaching loss in the Midwest and the Mississippi Alluvial Plain regions. Our results imply that future climate change alone, including more frequent and intense precipitation extremes, would increase N loading and intensify the eutrophication of the Gulf of Mexico over this coming century. More effective nutrient management interventions are needed to reverse this trend.en_US
dc.formatPDFen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Geophysical Unionen_US
dc.relation.ispartofEARTHS FUTUREen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries2328-4277en_US
dc.rights©American Geophysical Union 2022. This is this the version of record co-published by the American Geophysical Union and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. It is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Item should be cited as: Zhang, J., Lu, C., Crumpton, W., Jones, C., Tian, H., Villarini, G., ... & Green, D. (2022). Heavy Precipitation Impacts on Nitrogen Loading to the Gulf of Mexico in the 21st Century: Model projections under future climate scenarios. Earth's future, 10(4), e2021EF002141.en_US
dc.titleHeavy Precipitation Impacts on Nitrogen Loading to the Gulf of Mexico in the 21st Century: Model Projections Under Future Climate Scenariosen_US
dc.typeTexten_US
dc.type.genreJournal Article, Academic Journalen_US
dc.citation.volume10en_US
dc.citation.issue4en_US
dc.citation.spagee2021EF002141en_US
dc.description.statusPublisheden_US
dc.description.peerreviewYesen_US
dc.creator.orcid0000-0002-1806-4091en_US
dc.creator.orcid0000-0001-9566-2370en_US
dc.creator.orcid0000-0002-0439-003Xen_US

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